The results of our October 19 to 20 statewide survey among 602 Democratic primary voters show that Mike McWherter is the clear front-runner to win the nomination, being the ONLY candidate who wins double-digit support. Not surprisingly, there is a high undecided at this early stage of the election, which indicates that Mike’s lead is preliminary; yet, further encouraging news is that Mike maintains a strong lead after we present POSITIVE information for the major candidates.

Here are the current trial heat standings in the Democratic primary election for governor:

Mike’s early lead stems in large measure from his fairly respectable name recognition; he is the ONLY candidate who is known throughout the state, and thus he leads in every major geographic division of Tennessee. However, Mike’s appeal and strength as a candidate is not just due to his having a strong last name, because he continues to hold a solid lead after we present the following balanced and POSITIVE information for the major candidates.

ROY HERRON is from West Tennessee and has served in the state legislature for more than two decades, including 13 years in the Tennessee Senate. He has been a national leader in bringing faith to politics.

JIM KYLE is a long-time state senator from Memphis who serves as Democratic leader, and has helped pass every positive education reform in Tennessee in the past 25 years.

KIM MCMILLAN served in Governor Bredesen's cabinet and represented the Clarksville area in the state legislature for 12 years, becoming the first woman to be elected majority leader.

MIKE McWHERTER, the son of former Governor Ned McWherter, is the owner and operator of a successful small business in Jackson, and is the ONLY candidate that has grown a local business.

After voters hear the preceding information and are asked their preferences in the Democratic primary, Mike McWherter continues to lead and receives a plurality of the vote (34%), followed by Jim Kyle (19%), Kim McMillan (17%), and Roy Herron (12%)

We understand that the August 2010 primary is months away and that most Tennessee Democrats have yet to get engaged in the contest to succeed Governor Bredesen. Still, Mike McWherter comes to this campaign with the important advantages of a widely recognized and popular name AND a proven record as a successful businessman, and the polling data suggest that with a focused and well-funded campaign, Mike McWherter has an excellent chance to be the Democratic nominee next year.

This memo is based on a survey conducted among a representative statewide sample of 602 likely Democratic primary voters. This survey, which has a margin of error of ±4.1 percentage points, was conducted October 19 to 20, 2009.